By Pius Mordi

On September 3, 2025, President Bola Tinubu received members of Buhari Organisation in his Aso Rock office and boldly declared that his government has met its 2025 revenue project and ostensibly was awash with cash that it no longer needed to borrow. He said the 2025 revenue projection was met in August.

Three months later on December 17, Wale Edun practically pooh poohed his boss’ claim. Addressing the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, Edun declared that while the Federal Government projected N40.8 trillion revenue for 2025, it ended up making only N10.7 trillion.

According to him, the sharp shortfall is largely attributable to weak oil and gas earnings, particularly Petroleum Profit Tax and Company Income Tax from oil and gas companies, alongside persistent underperformance across several revenue subheads.

It was an unprecedented disclaimer of the President by his Finance Minister, an appointee. While President Tinubu had to resort to politics to paper over the huge shortfall in revenue and claimed that no additional loan will be taken, Edun did not read the script. He felt the state of the country’s finances was not something to be peppered over and went bare knuckles.

In February 2026, Edun doubled down on his disclosure. Appearing before the House Committee on Appropriations, which had summoned him to answer for a staggering failure of execution of the 2025 budget, he chose his Minister of State, Doris Uzoka-Anite to do the double down duty.

The committee was investigating why very little was released to Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) after the National Assembly had approved ₦1.15 trillion to fund capital components of the 2025 budget. By the time the committee convened, implementation stood at zero.

There was no place to hide in explaining the subject performance of the budget. Wale Edun’s deflection of the question by the federal lawmakers was no make-believe. He had actually lost control and track of the key activities of his Ministry and as Coordinating Minister of the Economy. After his unprecedented undisguised rebuttal of Tinubu’s claim that the 2025 revenue target had already been met, he was taught one of the fundamental lessons of political economics. It is not enough to bandy figures as an economist. Once the boss has spoken, you fall in line.

He had been stripped of control of his hitherto core functions. Cash flow oversight, domestic debt management, revenue distribution and chairmanship of the Board of the Nigeria Customs Service had been taken away from him and transferred to the Minister of State, Doris Uzoka-Anite.

The seeming elevation of the Imo State-born politician was short-lived however. It was clear the President had had enough of Edun. Taiwo Oyedele, who led the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, overseeing the passage of four landmark tax reform bills through the National Assembly in 2025, was brought in first to replace Uzoka-Anite who was redeployed out of Finance Ministry outright. Now, he has stepped in as the substantive minister after Edun was sacked.
A sack which the Secretary to the Federal Government, George Akume, initially described as an exercise driven by the desire to strengthen cohesion, synergy in governance as well as achieving more impactful delivery on the economy.

The sack did not surprise many who thought it was only a matter of time. The discordant tunes on what informed Edun’s sack only served to reinforce the perception that the Minister lost to his indiscretion of countering Tinubu on the state of the economy.

Contrary to Akume’s earlier explanation, Bayo Onanuga, the president’s spokesman, later gave a reason that he figured was more plausible: Health. He said Edun was not sacked; rather, he voluntarily resigned due to health reasons.

It has since emerged that Aso Rock was trying to quell the disquiet and concern within the business community on the incongruent tales on the economy and their perception that political considerations have got the better of economics.

Edun, last March also reiterated his opposition to continued reliance on loans to power the economy. “Nigeria cannot continue to rely on external borrowing while losing huge resources to illicit financial flows, insisting that domestic revenue mobilisation must take centre stage.” He spoke at the opening of the 5th Session of the African Union Sub-Committee on Tax and Illicit Financial Flows in Abuja.

Despite bragging that his government no longer needed further loans, the President has since gone ahead to procure additional dollar denominated loans.

And the borrowing spree continues. Just last week, the Senate quickly approved a fresh request from President Tinubu to borrow $516.3 million from Deutsche Bank AG, with insurance backing from the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit, the insurance arm of the Islamic Development Bank.

Wale Edun is one of longstanding loyalists of the President. Their association goes back to Tinubu’s time as Governor of Lagos State when Edun served as Commissioner for Finance from 1999 to 2007 where he oversaw fiscal reforms and financial management.

According to a report, the removal of Wale Edun as Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, was the final step in a process that had been building for months inside government, driven by fiscal strain and a steady erosion of his authority.

According to insiders familiar with the decision, Tinubu approved the move through a memo issued by SGF George Akume, officially describing it as a move “to strengthen cohesion, synergy and ensure more impactful delivery on the economy.” Edun was directed to hand over to Taiwo Oyedele, with a deadline of April 23, 2026.

Behind that official line, the facts he presented publicly had already set the tone. During the December 2025 MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper defence, Edun told lawmakers that while the Federal Government projected ₦40.8 trillion, “the actual trajectory suggests about ₦10.7 trillion,” confirming a revenue gap of roughly ₦30 trillion.

He attributed this to underperformance across both oil and non oil revenues. He was equally direct on spending.

Edun confirmed that “only about 30 percent of the 2025 capital budget has been funded,” adding that the remaining “will be rolled over into 2026” as part of efforts to end the cycle of overlapping budgets and return to a January to December fiscal framework.

On projections, his warning was clear. Nigeria must move toward “more realistic revenue assumptions,” after repeated shortfalls . 2024 and 2025 budgets exposed weaknesses in fiscal planning.

By December 2025, actions inside government had already followed. Key financial responsibilities including revenue generation, cash management, debt oversight, and payments were reassigned within the ministry, effectively stripping Edun of core control functions.

At the same time, pressure intensified around the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, with the Senate Public Accounts Committee probing audit discrepancies from 2017 to 2023 running into trillions of naira and setting a deadline for explanations.

But in a post on the saga surrounding Edun’s sack, the Ecu Law Group stated: “The presidency’s official justification tells us nothing. What the facts tell us is considerably more troubling”, adding that it may be a performance management decision dressed in political clothing.