The Southerner
OPEN EYES

Brazil has just reminded the world what a functioning democracy looks like under pressure. Lula da Silva defeated Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a bruising run-off, winning roughly 51.8% to 48.2% after trailing in the first round. This came after former President Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years over a plot to overturn the 2022 result, and while Flávio himself was under investigation over the Banco Master affair. Brazil’s electronic system counted the votes within hours, the electoral court declared a winner, and the institutions held. Brazil’s election was not flawless; a late two-hour extension of voting caused confusion, and the loser has refused to recognize the result. Even so, the system absorbed the shock because its institutions are trusted to deliver.

Nigerians must now ask why we cannot do the same. Nigeria has an estimated 230 million people or more, and Brazil about 212 million. Both are developing countries, and Brazil has the larger economy but a smaller population. Brazil has roughly 155 million registered voters, compared with about 103 million INEC registered for 2027. Population is therefore not a yardstick for failure and never was. Brazil conducts a nationwide electronic vote across a continent-sized territory, including the Amazon, and still reports results the same night. Nigeria’s population is a challenge to be managed, not an alibi to be recycled every four years.

Nigerians have not forgotten 2023. The Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) was promised as a safeguard. The IReV portal, sold as the guarantee of transparency, failed to upload presidential results in real time. Observer missions, including the EU and Yiaga Africa, criticized the lack of transparency and the shortfall against INEC’s own promises. A winner was declared with 36.6% of the vote, in an election with turnout of about 27%. Brazil’s compulsory voting inflates its turnout, but the gap still points to a deeper problem. Millions of Nigerians have lost faith that our votes decide anything.

INEC must therefore treat the upcoming January 2027 elections as an examination it cannot afford to fail. Voter registers must be cleaned and published early. BVAS machines must be tested, backed up and distributed on time. Polling units must open on schedule, and ballot papers and result sheets must arrive before voting day, not after.

Real-time upload of results from polling units to IReV must work without excuse, and any failure must be explained publicly and immediately, with clear alternatives. Collation centres must be open to accredited observers and party agents. No result should be altered at a collation table without a transparent audit trail.

Instructively, particular attention should be placed on states with a documented record of voter intimidation, violence and manipulation. Rivers, Kogi, Bayelsa, Kano, Lagos, Imo, Delta and parts of the North-West and South-South have been repeatedly flagged by observers. The Police, the DSS, the military and the Civil Defence Corps must be deployed early and professionally, with a clear order that they stay neutral.

Thugs who snatch ballot boxes, buyers who traffic in cash for votes, and officials who sign falsified result sheets must not be allowed to operate with impunity. Security agencies should protect voters, not politicians.

History has handed INEC Chairman Prof. Joash Amupitan both the burden and the opportunity to make a difference. His legacy will not be measured by timetables or press briefings, but by whether Nigerians believe the outcome. It is high time he became firm with political parties, transparent with the public and fearless in the face of pressure. And then, the Attorney-General; the Police and the courts must be swift to arrest, prosecute and convict those found guilty of vote buying, ballot-box snatching and result falsification, because elections without consequences for cheats will continue to be shams.

Brazil showed that accountability for those who undermine democracy is possible. Nigeria must show that it is serious I’m too, in January 2027 and not later.
Achieving such feat is a referendum on the ailing democracy in Nigeria. May the sun rise tomorrow.