Sunday Southerner – Main lead
The All Progressives Congress (APC) has released its 2027 presidential campaign timetable, confirming that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will personally attend rallies in only 12 out of 36 states, leaving 24 states plus the FCT to be handled by surrogates and party leaders.
The decision has triggered a firestorm, two days after President Tinubu told the inaugurated Presidential Campaign Council at the Villa that he would not abandon governance for full-blown campaigns.
“I will participate in selected rallies,”* the President said Wednesday, adding that, “Nigeria needs my attention.”
But the opposition has given a different interpretation to the President’s plan, firing salvos that also query Tinubu’s health status.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, now presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) fired the first shot.
“He cannot fill an empty pot with surrogates. He made the promises, he took the decisions, and he must face the questions,” his campaign council said in a statement signed by Phrank Shaibu.
Opposition voices attributed the scaled-down tour to alleged health concerns, a claim the Presidency has repeatedly dismissed as mischief.
12 states Tinubu will not visit
According to the APC timetable, Tinubu’s personal tour runs from October 24, 2026 to January 9, 2027.
The states he will visit within the period are:
1. *Kaduna* – Oct 24 (Flag-off)
2. *Rivers* – Nov 7
3. *Plateau* – Nov 14
4. *Oyo* – Nov 21
5. *Borno* – Nov 25
6. *Enugu* – Nov 28
7. *Bauchi* – Nov 29
8. *Sokoto* – Dec 5
9. *Delta* – Dec 12
10. *Kano* – Dec 17
11. *Adamawa* – Jan 4
12. *Lagos* – Jan 9 (Grand Finale)
States President will not visit
The President will be absent in at least 12 locations, including:
1. Cross River (Nov 2).
2. Gombe (Nov 3).
3. Nasarawa (Nov 4).
4. Ekiti (Nov 5), Ebonyi (Nov 9),
5. Jigawa (Nov 10).
6. Ondo (Nov 11).
7. Edo (Nov 12).
8. Yobe (Nov 16).
9. Kebbi (Nov 17).
10. Akwa Ibom (Nov 18).
11. Anambra (Nov 19).
12. Benue (Nov 30).
Other states to be glossed over by the president in the December segment of the campaigns are Katsina (Dec 2), Ogun (Dec 3), Abia (Dec 7), Kogi (Dec 8), Osun (Dec 9), Kwara (Dec 10), Zamfara (Dec 14), Niger (Dec 16), Taraba (Dec 19), Imo, Bayelsa and the FCT.
Strengths of states President will not visit and why it hurts:
The states are not fringe states, but sub-nationals that hold the margin of victory.
There is palpable anger in the South-South & South-East.
Akwa Ibom, Edo, Cross River, Bayelsa, Imo, Abia, Ebonyi, Anambra) matter.
These are oil-rich, high voter-turnout states where APC needs to improve on its 2023 performance. Skipping them signals surrender to the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the Labour Party.
In Anambra, where Gov. Soludo is now co-opted into the Presidential Campaign Council (PCC) but Tinubu will not visit, and in Akwa Ibom with over two million votes at stake, voters may see it as disrespectful.
The message: “Your votes don’t need my presence.”
For the Middle Belt states, it is a form of heartbreak. These are Benue, Nasarawa, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, and Taraba. These are Nigeria’s swing belt states.
Benue with its considerable number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) due to persistent farmer-herder crisis, Nasarawa and Kogi where APC is battling internal crisis, physical presence matters. Benue alone has over 2.7 million registered voters who decide elections on emotion.
For the Northern states to be glossed over, they are regarded as Core Vote Risk zones. They are Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Zamfara, and Yobe.
The states have been APC’s traditional fortress. Katsina is the home state of the late President Muhammadu Buhari. If Tinubu does not go there, the opposition ADC and other parties will tell voters: “Even your son’s party leader does not value you.” Turnout depression in these states could cost APC one to two million votes.
Strengths of the 12 states Tinubu will visit and likely repercussions
The 12 are chosen for strategic warfare, not comfort. Kaduna, Kano, Borno, and Sokoto: are the northern vote bank.
The choice of Kaduna for the flag-off is symbolic. It is the old base of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s presently in detention for alleged corrupt practices.
Kano, with 5.9 million voters is the largest in the North, while Borno is the base of Vice President Kashim Shettima. They are must-win for the APC.
Sokoto is the seat of the Caliphate and winning it is endorsement by the Northern oligarchy.
Repercussion: If Tinubu underperforms here, the 24-state absence will be judged as a failed gamble. But there are expectations by the APC to win outrightly in these states.
Scramble for Rivers and Delta. Following alliance by Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyessom Wike with the APC, the Rivers rally on November 7 is effectively Tinubu’s thank-you to Wike and a test of whether the minister can truly deliver.
The president’s berth in Asaba, the Delta State capital on December 12 is equally strategic, because Tinubu wants to win massive votes here.
Plateau, Oyo, Enugu, Bauchi, Adamawa and Lagos: are states where the president is likely to confront an offensive as was the case in 2023.
Oyo is Governor Seyi Makinde’s base, now Allied Peoples Movement’s presidential candidate. Going to Ibadan on November 21 is a direct challenge.
Bauchi is also an APM-controlled state, while Enugu is regarded as a stronghold of the NDC/PDP. APC has never won that state, although the governor, Peter Mbaegbu is now in the party.
Adamawa is Atiku Abubakar’s home state. Going to Yola on January 4, a week before elections, is the biggest psychological operation in the timetable. And the Lagos finale on January 9 is homecoming and base protection strategy for the president.
The Icing:
Tinubu’s strategy is classic incumbent outsourcing: preserve presidential aura, avoid the grueling 36-state stress, then let the governors, PCC and ministers do the dirty work while he governs.
But presidential elections in Nigeria are not won by surrogates. They are won by a candidate looking voters in the eye. If opposition successfully frames absence as incapacity – whether health-related or governance-fatigue related – the 24 states he ignored may pay him back on the ballot day.
The risk is voter apathy and low turnout in the safe states, and protest votes in the swing states.
The reward, if it works, is that he enters 2027 looking like a President, not a desperate candidate.
